The USDA has slashed it’s 2019 corn production estimate because of widespread planting delays caused by heavy rainfall and flooding in key U.S. growing areas.
As of June 1st, the crop is projected at 13.680 billion bushels, down 1.35 billion from May’s report, with the USDA lowering planted and harvested acreage expectations by 3 million acres each and reducing the yield guess ten bushels to 166 bushels per acre. Planted area is now seen at 89.8 million acres with harvested area of 82.4 million. If realized, that would pull new crop ending stocks to 1.675 billion, but support the average estimated farm price, with the USDA raising the projection $.50 on the month to $3.80 per bushel. The USDA also lowered 2019/20 feed and residual use, and exports expectations for corn, while raising imports and beginning, or 2018/19 ending, stocks.
The USDA left soybean production estimates unchanged, for now, with a crop of 4.15 billion bushels, an average yield of 49.5 bushels per acre, and planted and harvested area of 84.6 million and 83.8 million acres, respectively. The USDA did push new crop beginning stocks above a billion bushels, while leaving exports unchanged and increasing the average estimated farm price by $.15 to $8.25.
As of Sunday, 83% of this year’s U.S. corn crop and 60% of soybeans are planted, both historically slow. Emergence is also behind average and the first U.S. corn condition rating of the year was the lowest in nearly two decades.
The 2019/20 U.S. marketing year for wheat started June 1st, while 2018/19 runs through the end of August for corn and soybeans and the end of September for soybean products.
Breakdowns of selected U.S. and global supply and demand tables:
2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks were reported at 1.102 billion bushels, compared to 1.127 billion in May and 1.099 billion for 2017/18. The USDA raised exports by 25 million bushels to 950 million, taking total use to 2.022 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $5.20 per bushel, unchanged from a month ago and up from the $4.72 average the previous marketing year.
2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 1.072 billion bushels, compared to 1.141 billion last month. With a higher winter wheat production guess, the total crop is now seen at 1.903 billion bushels, which with tighter beginning stocks, puts total supply at 3.145 billion bushels. The USDA raised the feed and residual use projection 50 million bushels to 140 million, leaving domestic use at 1.173 billion bushels and total use at 2.073 billion. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $5.10 per bushel.
2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.195 billion bushels, compared to 2.095 billion in May and 2.140 billion for 2017/18. The sole change to the old crop balance sheet was a 100-million-bushel reduction in exports to 2.2 billion, pulling total use to 14.4 billion. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3.60 per bushel, compared to $3.50 a month ago and $3.36 a year ago.
2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.675 billion bushels, compared to 2.485 billion last month. With higher beginning stocks, a lower production guess, and higher imports, up 15 million bushels to 50 million, the total supply is seen at 15.925 billion bushels, compared to 17.16 billion in the previous report. The USDA lowered feed and residual use 300 million bushels to 5.15 billion, leaving domestic use at 12.1 billion, and cut exports 125 million bushels to 2.15 billion, for total use of 14.25 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.80 per bushel, compared to $3.30 in May.
2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 1.070 billion bushels, compared to 995 million a month ago and 438 million a year ago. The USDA reduced the export estimate 75 million bushels to 1.7 billion, taking total use to 3.929 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $8.50 per bushel, compared to $8.55 last month and $9.33 last marketing year.
2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.045 billion bushels, compared to 970 million in May. With higher beginning stocks, the total supply is now seen at 2.240 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $8.25 per bushel, compared to $8.10 a month ago.
2018/19 world wheat ending stocks are expected to total 276.57 million tons, up modestly on the month with just under half held by China, with production up slightly at 731.69 million tons. The USDA raised its crop estimate for India, making no other reported changes. Domestic feed use is seen at 139.45 million tons, compared to 139.72 million last month, with exports of 175.66 million tons, compared to 177.91 million in May.
2019/20 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 294.34 million tons, compared to 293.01 million a month ago, with production of 780.83 million tons, up more than 3 million on the month. The USDA increased projections for Russia, Ukraine, and India, but lowered the outlook for Brazil. Domestic feed use is expected to be 152.56 million tons, compared to 150.27 million in May, and exports are estimated at 185.4 million tons, compared to 184.6 million last month.
2018/19 world corn ending stocks are pegged at 325.38 million tons, compared to 325.94 million in May. Global production is expected to be 1.121 billion bushels, compared to 1.119 billion in the prior report, with an increase for Brazil canceled out be decreases for South Africa and Southeast Asia. Domestic feed use is seen at 699.32 million tons, compared to 699.68 million last month, and exports are expected to be 178.8 million tons, compared to 170.32 million a month ago. The USDA cut the guess for the U.S., while raising projections for Argentina, Brazil, and the European Union.
2019/20 world corn ending stocks are seen at 290.52 million tons, down sharply from the 314.71 million last month, while production is pegged at 1.099 billion tons, compared to 1.134 billion the month before. Both of those are largely linked to a big cut for the U.S., with a smaller reduction for Canada, cancelling out increased expectations for Argentina and Russia. Domestic feed use is estimated at 696.25 million tons, compared to 705.1 million a month ago, with exports of 169.84 million tons, compared to 171.61 million in May. The USDA lowered exports for the U.S., while raising projections for Argentina and Russia.
2018/19 world soybean ending stocks are expected to be 112.80 million tons, down modestly on the month, with production of 362.08 million tons, unchanged. Domestic crush use is projected at 301.63 million tons, also unchanged, with exports of 149.69 million tons, compared to 150.3 million a month ago, with a reduction from the U.S. offsetting an increase for Argentina. Imports by China were reduced 1 million tons to 85 million.
2019/20 world soybean stocks are pegged at 112.66 million tons, compared to 113.09 million the month before, with production of 355.66 million tons, compared to 355.39 million last month, but with no published revisions. Domestic crush demand is seen at 308.20 million tons, compared to 308.1 million a month ago, with exports of 151.05 million tons, compared to 151.15 million in May. Chinese import demand was unchanged at 87 million tons.
Source: Brownfield AG News
